[SKYWARN_Announce] Severe Weather Coordination Message #1

[rmacedo at rcn.com]

Hello to all... 

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible to likely today across portions of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather today.. 
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening.. 

At 1010 AM Tuesday Morning, Satellite imagery shows some cloud cover over Southern New England and Eastern New York with breaks forming over Eastern New York and Western New England. Radar shows a line of weakening showers moving through Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and South Central Massachusetts. As we get to later this afternoon and evening, cold temperature aloft and very strong wind shear values will be over the region. If these factors can compensate for lower dewpoints and moisture levels that will be in the area and possibly less instability than expected because of cloud cover, this should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms today. The headlines cover the situation well. While Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut are in the marginal risk area, other areas outside of the marginal risk area could see a few stronger thunderstorms depending on enough parameters coming in place to allow for sufficient strong to severe thunderstorm coverage. 

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today's severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be sent if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook: 


SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook: 
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook: 

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html 
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook: 
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo 


Respectfully Submitted, 

Robert Macedo (KD1CY) 
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator 
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator 
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM) 
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM) 
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM) 
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com 
http://ares.ema.arrl.org 
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