[SKYWARN_Announce] Severe Weather Coordination Message #1

[rmacedo at rcn.com]

Hello to all... 

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather further west in New York State.. 
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible anytime after 4 PM Tuesday Afternoon.. 

Heat and humidity will be entrenched over Southern New England Tuesday with a cold front approaching and moving through New York State Tuesday Evening and sweeping across Southern New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. Wind shear will be sufficient for severe weather potential. Instability is a bit more in question though some models have trended toward higher instability in later runs. The other question will be the forcing of the cold front and if that will reach Southern New England with sufficient instability to tap into for severe weather potential to be realized or if the wind shear can compensate for a lower level of instability in Southern New England. 

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible anytime after 4 PM Tuesday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook: 


NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook: 
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html 


NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook: 
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo 


SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook: 
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170821_1730.html 

Respectfully Submitted, 


Robert Macedo (KD1CY) 
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator 
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator 
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM) 
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM) 
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM) 
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com 
http://ares.ema.arrl.org 
http://www.wx1box.org 
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