[SKYWARN_Announce] Severe Weather Coordination Message #1

[rmacedo at rcn.com]

Hello to all... 

..Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds, and frequent lightning are possible today across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut today. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are also possible in other parts of interior Southern New England from Boston to Providence north and west this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England from Boston to Providence north and west in a slight risk for excessive rainfall.. 
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible any time after Noon today to monitor severe weather and flood potential.. 

At 710 AM, Doppler Radar showed a line of showers and embedded heavier downpours along the New York/Massachusetts/Connecticut line moving east to east-northeastward and will be the first round of rainfall. Radar also shows another area behind that and as the warm front continues to lift northeastward, dewpoints will climb significantly. Cloud cover will likely be extensive throughout the day but some breaks in the cloud cover could allows for some further destabilization in the atmosphere between the current showers and heavier downpours and the next expected round of showers and thunderstorms later in the day. Wind shear profiles will be sufficient for an isolated severe weather threat across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and the wind shear profiles and high dewpoints will have the potential for thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall across much of interior Southern New England from Boston to Providence north and west. The headlines cover the areas affected. The tropical air mass and strong wind shear profiles may also mean a low risk for an isolated tornado in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. 

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible any time after Noon today to monitor severe weather and flood potential. This will likely be the only complete coordination message on the severe weather and flood potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: 


NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook: 
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html 


NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook: 
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo 
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook: 
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1 


Respectfully Submitted, 


Robert Macedo (KD1CY) 
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator 
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator 
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM) 
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM) 
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM) 
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com 
http://ares.ema.arrl.org 
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